In today’s volatile world, procurement leaders face a unique, compounding challenge: rising geopolitical risk and the transformational mandate to drive carbon neutrality by 2030. At Procurement People, our deep experience in leading-edge procurement and supply chain recruitment tells us this is now a board-level issue. The success of your organisation’s net-zero ambitions is inseparable from how effectively procurement adapts to geopolitical disruption.

The geostrategic headwinds facing procurement

The rising tide of geopolitical fragmentation

Over the past decade, global trade and supply chains have been reshaped by sanctions, regional blocs, export controls, and “friend-shoring” initiatives. Events such as the Russia–Ukraine war, U.S.–China tensions, and supply constraints in critical minerals are not anomalies, they are the new normal.

The effect on procurement is profound: supplier reliability, input cost volatility, border delays, and license or export restrictions are now constant threats to baseline operations.

The raw-material paradox in decarbonisation

To decarbonise, you need “green” inputs - wind turbines, batteries, rare earths, low-carbon steel, sustainable chemicals, etc. But many of these inputs are sourced from geopolitically fragile jurisdictions. A recent study shows raw materials critical to carbon-neutral pathways are themselves subject to geopolitical risk.

In short: you cannot escape geopolitical risk, you must manage it purposefully, especially if your net-zero goals rely on supply of green inputs.

Geopolitics as both risk and accelerator

Interestingly, geopolitical pressure can also stimulate the energy transition. Companies and governments, seeking energy security, may accelerate renewables uptake or localisation of green supply chains. Yet the flip side is that this acceleration often comes with supply bottlenecks, subsidies that distort markets, and protectionism.

Therefore, procurement leaders must treat geopolitical risk not just defensively, but strategically - anticipating how climate, industrial, trade and foreign policy will intersect.

Why carbon neutrality by 2030 is risk-laden (if executed poorly)

Ambitious as it is, a credible plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2030 can backfire if not grounded in realistic risk mitigation. Here’s how:

Supply-chain decarbonisation is inherently exposure-intensive

You will need end-to-end visibility of Scope 3 supplier emissions, renewable energy in operations, low-carbon materials, and possibly carbon sequestration or offsets. That means working through multiple tiers of suppliers - many of which may be in nations with weak rule of law, regulatory flux, or political instability.

Without advanced risk modelling, a supplier collapse, or export ban could derail dozens of subcontracts.

Geopolitical shock cascades revenue and sustainability risk

Recent modelling of carbon pricing and transition risk shows that shocks can cascade across supply-chain networks, creating knock-on defaults and losses far beyond first-order exposures.

For procurement leaders, this means that failure to stress-test sustainability initiatives in a volatile geopolitical environment is a blind spot.

Carbon offsets and credits bring their own geopolitical complexity

Because many carbon offset projects (especially in nature-based or blue carbon domains) are located in the global south, they are exposed to governance, permitting, and political risk. Attempts to rely on offsets to plug the gap between operational decarbonisation and full neutrality can introduce new dependencies.

Risk of regulatory whiplash and political reversal

National climate policy, trade sanctions, or carbon border adjustment regimes can change quickly. Procurement leaders must continuously adapt to avoid stranded contracts, redlined regions, or supplier bans leveraged for geopolitical reasons.

Why Procurement People is your natural partner in this shift

At Procurement People, we specialise in recruiting the senior leadership and niche expertise that bridge procurement, sustainability and risk.

As procurement transforms from a cost-centre to a strategic lever, we help clients place leaders who:

• Can view climate and geo-risk through a unified lens
• Have domain credibility (e.g. renewable procurement, green materials, carbon accounting)
• Are transformative, not incremental - able to lead supplier networks through volatile change

If you’re seeking to future-proof your procurement team, get in touch with us to discuss executive search, interim placements or consultancy solutions tailored to sustainable, resilient procurement transformation. Contact Us